Scattered Work

What’s he going to say?

We know at least the broad strokes of Obama’s economic plans, but I’ll be listening closely on Tuesday to hear what he has to say about the situation in Gaza. From an article in Ha’aretz:

“We’ve got plenty to say about Gaza, and on January 20, you’ll hear directly from me,” [Obama] added.

Hopefully we’ll get a substantive idea of what his approach will be coming out of the gate. This preview of his speech, though, doesn’t offer any clues. I’m seeing some hints that Israel’s Western allies, along with Egypt, will indeed be pushing to strengthen Fatah and the PA politically. From the New York Times:

From Sharm el Sheik, the French, British, German, Spanish, Italian and Czech leaders traveled to Jerusalem for dinner with Mr. Olmert, who told his guests that undermining Hamas rule in Gaza depended on strengthening the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, whose power is currently confined to the West Bank.

And the Financial Times:

The Sharm el-Sheikh conference also provided an opportunity to try to shore up the credibility of Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority. The PA, which was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007, has been largely sidelined during the conflict, and Mr Abbas has faced criticism from Palestinians for not responding decisively to the crisis. He took part in the gathering and addressed the press alongside the European leaders.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Goldberg thinks Fatah may be sharing intelligence with Israel. If this is true, a joint effort to weaken Hamas politically, along with some pressure on Israel to make concessions, could go a long way. I have a feeling the only way for Obama to gain real credibility with the Arab nations would be forcing Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Whether this is politically feasible, I have no idea.

Tags: Barack Obama, Fatah, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Mahmoud Abbas

They bombed what?

So I see that Israel bombed a few things today:

UN compound hit by Israeli shells, setting its main warehouse for food, fuel and medicine ablaze

Skyscraper housing international media groups, including the Reuters news agency, hit by Israeli fire

Al-Quds hospital struck by Israeli artillery, destroying two floors and setting it ablaze

One of two warehouses used by Red Crescent shelled, setting the building containing relief items on fire

Jabaliya refugee camp hit. Saeed Seyyam, senior Hamas leader, is killed

I certainly recognize that Hamas encourages this stuff with their own illegal war tactics. But if Obama wants to change America’s relationship with Israel, this war may just provide him with the justification he needs.

Tags: Barack Obama, Gaza, Hamas, Israel

A Narrow Path

A little over a week ago, Atlantic blogger Jeffrey Goldberg posted on why he hadn’t written more about Gaza:

I actually feel too close to this problem, a problem that symbolizes all problems. It’s true: I have friends in Gaza about whom I worry a great deal; I’ve seen many people killed in Gaza; I’ve served in the Israeli Army in Gaza; I’ve been kidnapped in Gaza; I’ve reported for years from Gaza; I hope my former army doesn’t kill the wrong people in Gaza; I hope Israeli soldiers all leave Gaza alive; I know they’ll be back in Gaza; I think this operation will work; and I have no actual hope that it will work for very long, because nothing works for very long in the Middle East. Gaza is where dreams of reconciliation go to die. Gaza is where the dream of Palestinian statehood goes to die; Gaza is where the Zionist dream might yet die.

Yesterday the New York Times published a fascinating article by Goldberg about the situation. It’s difficult reading or thinking about the conflict, because opinion has become so calcified, and the discussions involve vastly more heat than light. But Goldberg manages to elucidate the complex relationship between Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah, and Iran, while offering the only seemingly plausible path to peace that I’ve heard:

The only small chance for peace today is the same chance that existed before the Gaza invasion: The moderate Arab states, Europe, the United States and, mainly, Israel, must help Hamas’s enemy, Fatah, prepare the West Bank for real freedom, and then hope that the people of Gaza, vast numbers of whom are unsympathetic to Hamas, see the West Bank as an alternative to the squalid vision of Hassan Nasrallah and Nizar Rayyan.

This political solution is in line with Fareed Zakaria’s argument that nations must be liberalized before they can be successfully democratized. Palestinian democratic elections gave us Hamas as a legitimized government. It’s clear that Hamas can neither be negotiated with nor bombed into submission. But if Palestinian government can undergo an internal liberalization, and if Israel responds with more moderation, there may be a narrow path forward.

Tags: Fareed Zakaria, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Jeffrey Goldberg